Mar 1, 2006

Oscar Time!

The Oscars are this weekend. I'm a HUGE movie buff, and I've loved the Oscars ever since I can remember. I jumped up and down with Matt Damon and Ben Affleck when they were awarded their Oscar for screenwriting Good Will Hunting (Brian, were you there for that?), I got teary when Hilary Swank took home the Best Actress award for her performance in Boys Don't Cry (one of the few movies where I left the theater hating mankind), and I could only smile when Julia Roberts received her well-deserved Oscar for Erin Brockovich. (I should also add that I won $20 when Charlize Theron took the Oscar for Monster-- to me, it was SUCH a lock that the guy should not have taken that bet against me... in all fairness, though, I DID warn him! And don't even get me started on how happy I was for the Mystic River boys (Sean Penn and Tim Robbins) in their pursuits for the elusive Oscar... can you tell that I get into Oscar fever justalittlebit?) In past years, I've been able to predict several of the categories fairly accurately, and I'm hoping that this streak will continue. Without further adieu, I present to you my Oscar picks for 2006:

Best Actor:
Who Will Probably Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman. I haven't seen Capote, but I've seen several clips online and it's safe to say that he NAILED the role of Truman Capote. Oscar voters seem to like compelling and accurate portrayals of real people (think Julia Roberts, Jamie Foxx, Hilary Swank, and Charlize Theron victories) and Hoffman's portrayal is one of the best (from the limited amount I've seen).
Who The BLS Wants to Win: Joaquin Phoenix. Duh. I love Joaquin Phoenix. I thought his portrayal of Johnny Cash was sensational. If he wins, I'll do a dance. No joke.

Best Actress:
Who Will Probably Win: Reese Witherspoon. Critics fell in love with her portrayal of June Carter Cash and several have made the argument that she carried Joaquin Phoenix in Walk the Line (I respectfully dissent from that critique, but I do think she acted her ass off in that role.)
Who the BLS Wants to Win: Reese Witherspoon. Again, duh. I love Reese Witherspoon. She and Joaquin Phoenix were incredible on-screen together, and I was blown away with the depths of her performance. This isn't affecting my opinion, but she's also Elle Woods! How can you not love this woman? I sincerely hope that Academy voters do not take some of her lighter roles into account and give this woman the Oscar she deserves.

Best Supporting Actor:
Who Will Probably Win: George Clooney. He's created so much hype about the fact that he's made history by being the first person to be nominated for Best Director and Best Supporting Actor in a single year. I don't think he's going to win Best Director, so I can see Oscar voters being sympathetic to his plight and giving him the nod for Best Supporting Actor instead.
Who The BLS Wants to Win: Matt Dillon. Come on! He's been around for so long! He's proven that he's a good character actor! Throw him a frickin' bone, already!

Best Supporting Actress:
Who Will Probably Win: Rachel Weisz. I haven't seen The Constant Gardener, but I've heard so much buzz about her performance in it that it's hard for me to think that she's going to walk away empty-handed come Oscar night.
Who The BLS Wants to Win: Michelle Williams. See, some of the kids from Dawson's Creek can actually act! And I'm always holding the hope that Oscar voters will see an upset in this category (think last year when Natalie Portman was supposedly a lock for this category-- who won it again? I don't even remember. That's my point.) For those of you who are keeping score in Oscar Trivia, it was Cate Blanchett for The Aviator. But the hype was on Natalie Portman, so it was considered an upset. Also, think back when Lauren Bacall was supposedly a lock for the same category, only to be beaten by Juliette Binoche? I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for Michelle Williams.

Best Director:
Who Will Probably Win: Ang Lee. Has anyone in the United States NOT heard of Brokeback Mountain? Yeah, I didn't think so, either. Given that three of the main actors in the movie have been nominated for their performances, I don't see how Ang Lee will walk away on Sunday night without the little gold man in his hands.
Who The BLS Wants to Win: Ang Lee. I really don't see him NOT winning this category. Munich was a compelling movie, but I think that Academy voters will see Steven Spielberg as an already celebrated director, and let's face it: Munich was no Saving Private Ryan. George Clooney has had a great year, but again, I don't see him beating out Ang Lee. (See my commentary for Best Supporting Actor). Also taking into account that many feel Ang Lee was robbed of the Oscar back in 2000 for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, I think he's basically a lock (unless the monstrosity that was Hulk comes back to bite him in the ass.)

Best Movie:
Who Will Probably Win: Brokeback Mountain. It's already swept most of the prestigious film awards thus far. I don't see how it can lose.
Who The BLS Wants to Win: Brokeback Mountain. Given its very powerful acting performances and its stellar direction, I don't think this movie can lose.

How will my predictions stack up when the real thing happens on Sunday? I'll post my "score" either Sunday night or Monday.


At March 04, 2006 9:07 PM, Blogger The Captain said...

I've always been a big Oscar's person. I usually go out of my way to see each of the five films up for Best Picture after the nominations come out, just to make my own decisions. Million Dollar Baby was obvious last year.

This year? Not a single one. This has been a bad year for movie watching. The only (major award) movie I've seen with any nominations was Pride and Prejudice (and I was dragged to it), so I've got no real frame of reference.

I'm rooting for Phillip Seymour Hoffman though. He's been great in so many supporting roles, it would be nice for him to get some lead recognition.


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